Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2637 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2637 BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 446 BNA 18:35 → ATL 20:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2637 Delta Flight history →	BNA 05:10	ATL 07:21	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	BNA 09:48	ATL 12:00	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2250 Delta Flight history →	BNA 08:33	ATL 10:40	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 3001 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:18	ATL 08:30	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2802 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:32	ATL 09:45	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:55	ATL 13:05	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	BNA 12:38	ATL 14:50	10%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:51	ATL 17:04	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	BNA 19:57	ATL 22:23	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:31	ATL 18:49	15%	3%	0.7%	69%
DL 719 Delta Flight history →	BNA 18:55	ATL 21:16	16%	4%	0.7%	70%
WN 447 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:50	ATL 01:05	20%	5%	0.6%	64%
WN 893 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:50	ATL 15:00	21%	3%	0.5%	46%
WN 446 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:35	ATL 20:50	31%	6%	0.6%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON