Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1271 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1271 BNA 05:15 → AUS 07:25 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1900 BNA 17:45 → AUS 19:55 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1271 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:15	AUS 07:25	2%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 4149 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:00	AUS 10:10	6%	1%	0.6%	80%
DL 4146 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 07:05	AUS 09:31	9%	4%	0.6%	87%
WN 450 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:30	AUS 13:40	13%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 3960 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 11:24	AUS 13:50	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 18:48	AUS 21:19	19%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 451 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:30	AUS 16:40	20%	4%	0.5%	46%
WN 454 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:35	AUS 00:50	23%	4%	0.6%	54%
WN 1900 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:45	AUS 19:55	27%	6%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON