tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4369 at 13:10, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4369 Southwest Flight history → BNA 13:10 BDL 16:30 18% 3% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 1h 05m Chicago MDW 07:45 → BDL 10:55WN 2731 4h 50m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → BDL 12:00WN 427 4h 15m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 23m Dulles IAD 12:40 → BDL 14:06UA 632 4h 36m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 44m Detroit DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163 5h 08m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 49m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → BDL 10:30DL 2951 4h 20m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 5h 27m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 51m Charlotte CLT 11:51 → BDL 13:50AA 1448 7h 19m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451 3h 05m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 7h 24m 98% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:01 → ORD 18:09AA 6200 · flown by SkyWest 55m Chicago ORD 19:04 → BDL 22:26AA 1453 5h 25m 68% 47%
JetBlueDetails → BNA 18:23 → JFK 21:50B6 1174 49m New York JFK 22:39 → BDL 23:59B6 675 4h 36m 53% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON