tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 434 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 434 Southwest Flight history → BNA 10:45 BHM 11:40 12% 2% 0.4% 74%
WN 4559 Southwest Flight history → BNA 22:50 BHM 23:50 26% 6% 0.5% 49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25DL 3100 3h 15m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 4h 52m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:50 → BHM 11:46AA 3469 · flown by Envoy 6h 45m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485 2h 50m Dallas DAL 09:50 → BHM 11:30WN 1271 6h 20m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012 5h 52m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → BHM 12:09AA 4932 · flown by SkyWest 6h 38m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163 5h 22m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 1h 20m Denver DEN 10:15 → BHM 14:03UA 1241 7h 03m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:34UA 4447 · flown by GoJet 5h 10m 69% 51%
AmericanDetails → BNA 18:39 → MIA 22:04AA 1452 52m Miami MIA 22:56 → BHM 23:59AA 3427 · flown by Envoy 5h 20m 61% 48%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:50 → LGA 20:11DL 2748 54m New York LGA 21:05 → BHM 22:50DL 4938 · flown by Endeavor 6h 00m 68% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON