Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2509 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2509 BNA 07:30 → BOS 11:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4372 BNA 13:20 → BOS 16:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2509 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:30	BOS 11:11	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
B6 806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 09:00	BOS 12:33	12%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BNA 11:15	BOS 14:59	12%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 4560 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:15	BOS 13:40	15%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:35	BOS 21:19	23%	8%	0.7%	64%
B6 1806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 13:12	BOS 16:51	24%	10%	0.8%	67%
WN 459 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:35	BOS 00:15	26%	5%	0.6%	43%
B6 506 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 19:45	BOS 23:21	26%	10%	0.8%	63%
WN 4372 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:20	BOS 16:50	28%	6%	0.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON