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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4728 at 13:15, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4728 Southwest Flight history → BNA 13:15 BUF 16:00 20% 5% 0.6% 37%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 10:50 → BUF 12:05WN 762 4h 20m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 1h 15m Chicago MDW 07:55 → BUF 10:25WN 758 4h 20m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 01m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 06m Charlotte CLT 11:06 → BUF 12:51AA 1616 6h 20m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 7h 21m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BNA 09:53 → ORD 11:54UA 343 2h 01m Chicago ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226 5h 48m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 5h 15m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 24m Detroit DTW 10:10 → BUF 11:22DL 3636 · flown by SkyWest 4h 17m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:43 → ORD 12:39AA 3439 · flown by Envoy 46m Chicago ORD 13:25 → BUF 16:14AA 4913 · flown by SkyWest 4h 31m 73% 53%
JetBlueDetails → BNA 13:12 → BOS 16:51B6 1806 49m Boston BOS 17:40 → BUF 19:19B6 1115 5h 07m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON