Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 461 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:40	BUR 17:55	24%	6%	0.7%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243	6h 20m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:35 → LAS 08:25WN 544	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	6h 20m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50WN 3993	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 10:55 → BUR 12:10WN 1529	7h 10m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741	9h 20m	100%	83%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	2h 20m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 48m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	3h 05m Phoenix	PHX 12:45 → BUR 14:05WN 1493	8h 00m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	BNA 07:55 → DEN 09:40WN 499	2h 05m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579	7h 25m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 45m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BNA 17:15 → DEN 19:15WN 504	1h 10m Denver	DEN 20:25 → BUR 21:55WN 1497	6h 40m	73%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON