Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 462 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 462 BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 467 BNA 18:05 → BWI 21:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 462 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:45	BWI 09:35	4%	1%	0.6%	86%
WN 1345 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:05	BWI 14:55	12%	3%	0.6%	75%
WN 2994 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:25	BWI 16:15	14%	4%	0.6%	73%
WN 468 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:30	BWI 23:20	23%	5%	0.6%	30%
WN 467 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:05	BWI 21:00	24%	7%	0.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON