Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1065 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1065 BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 478 BNA 16:40 → CLT 19:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1065 American Flight history →	BNA 05:31	CLT 08:00	4%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 2692 American Flight history →	BNA 07:13	CLT 09:50	9%	3%	0.7%	80%
WN 477 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:10	CLT 12:35	13%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 5082 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 12:32	CLT 15:08	14%	5%	1.2%	72%
AA 1486 American Flight history →	BNA 14:52	CLT 17:30	15%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 5083 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 10:20	CLT 12:52	15%	5%	1.2%	85%
AA 1497 American Flight history →	BNA 19:19	CLT 21:55	23%	5%	0.7%	62%
WN 4518 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:50	CLT 23:20	23%	5%	0.6%	50%
AA 1526 American Flight history →	BNA 16:30	CLT 19:05	23%	6%	0.7%	53%
WN 478 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:40	CLT 19:10	26%	5%	0.6%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON