Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4427 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4427 BNA 10:05 → CMH 12:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 850 BNA 19:20 → CMH 21:45 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4427 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:05	CMH 12:25	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
WN 5059 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:40	CMH 21:05	28%	6%	0.5%	80%
WN 481 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:40	CMH 19:00	31%	6%	0.5%	42%
WN 850 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:20	CMH 21:45	32%	7%	0.5%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON