Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 483 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 483 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:05	CVG 12:15	12%	2%	0.5%	79%
WN 4522 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:45	CVG 23:05	23%	5%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 15m	99%	90%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → EWR 10:18UA 371	3h 03m Newark	EWR 13:21 → CVG 15:33UA 3473 · flown by Republic	7h 33m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:11 → CVG 12:34DL 3149	5h 16m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	6h 11m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	4h 23m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	3h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	7h 34m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:55 → ATL 13:05DL 1155	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	4h 46m	99%	82%
American Details →	BNA 07:21 → ORD 09:30AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → CVG 14:25AA 4720 · flown by Republic	6h 04m	94%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148	4h 28m	60%	47%
United Details →	BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884	50m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → CVG 22:26UA 5785 · flown by SkyWest	4h 27m	64%	47%
Delta Details →	BNA 13:53 → JFK 17:39DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 18:29 → CVG 21:05DL 5023 · flown by Endeavor	6h 12m	64%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON