Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4991 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4991 BNA 05:40 → DCA 08:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 165 BNA 17:10 → DCA 19:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4991 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:40	DCA 08:25	3%	1%	0.7%	85%
DL 5708 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 06:05	DCA 09:02	6%	2%	0.8%	84%
AA 5440 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 06:00	DCA 09:04	11%	4%	1.7%	100%worse than usual
DL 5769 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 11:40	DCA 14:34	11%	3%	0.8%	63%
AA 4495 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 16:51	DCA 19:55	15%	5%	1.0%	68%
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 10:41	DCA 13:44	16%	7%	1.5%	60%
WN 4562 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:15	DCA 14:00	16%	5%	0.6%	39%
DL 5786 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:00	DCA 19:57	17%	5%	1.0%	62%
AA 3991 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 15:30	DCA 18:26	18%	4%	1.5%	70%
AA 1163 American Flight history →	BNA 19:38	DCA 22:29	19%	4%	1.3%	66%
WN 4380 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:55	DCA 16:45	20%	6%	0.6%	48%
WN 497 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:30	DCA 23:20	24%	8%	0.6%	43%
WN 165 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:10	DCA 19:55	32%	9%	0.6%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON