Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 800 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 800 BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 505 BNA 18:40 → DEN 20:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 800 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:15	DEN 07:00	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
UA 1716 United Flight history →	BNA 07:00	DEN 08:55	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 499 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 07:55	DEN 09:40	9%	2%	0.5%	66%
UA 502 United Flight history →	BNA 10:26	DEN 12:23	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 500 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:40	DEN 13:25	15%	3%	0.6%	65%
F9 1401 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 12:17	DEN 14:23	18%	5%	0.8%	77%
UA 1766 United Flight history →	BNA 14:29	DEN 16:29	18%	4%	0.6%	80%
WN 506 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:50	DEN 23:45	20%	4%	0.6%	61%
WN 503 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:25	DEN 15:10	20%	4%	0.6%	46%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	BNA 17:30	DEN 19:36	21%	4%	0.6%	40%
WN 504 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:15	DEN 19:15	31%	5%	0.6%	39%
WN 505 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:40	DEN 20:30	31%	5%	0.6%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON