Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2821 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2821 BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5475 BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2821 American Flight history →	BNA 05:01	DFW 07:12	5%	2%	1.0%	89%
AA 2787 American Flight history →	BNA 06:01	DFW 08:20	6%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 2583 American Flight history →	BNA 07:04	DFW 09:18	7%	3%	1.0%	83%
AA 3397 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 09:58	DFW 12:13	10%	3%	0.8%	76%
AA 1515 American Flight history →	BNA 08:01	DFW 10:14	10%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 1520 American Flight history →	BNA 12:45	DFW 14:58	13%	5%	0.9%	74%
AA 1475 American Flight history →	BNA 15:31	DFW 17:44	19%	6%	1.0%	51%
AA 1522 American Flight history →	BNA 16:36	DFW 18:53	20%	6%	1.2%	53%
AA 1496 American Flight history →	BNA 17:45	DFW 20:02	21%	6%	1.1%	50%
AA 3925 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 18:43	DFW 21:00	26%	5%	0.8%	62%
F9 3051 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 19:58	DFW 22:15	28%	8%	2.1%	77%
AA 5475 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 19:34	DFW 21:50	34%	9%	2.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON