Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2439 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2439 BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4815 BNA 17:55 → DTW 20:35 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2439 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:05	DTW 08:46	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:06	DTW 12:46	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 507 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:10	DTW 12:45	11%	2%	0.5%	57%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:03	DTW 16:46	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:40	DTW 20:24	18%	4%	0.6%	76%
WN 2210 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:30	DTW 00:10	22%	4%	0.5%	42%
WN 4815 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:55	DTW 20:35	29%	5%	0.5%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON