Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 371 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 371 BNA 07:00 → EWR 10:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2848 BNA 15:35 → EWR 19:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 371 United Flight history →	BNA 07:00	EWR 10:18	7%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2690 United Flight history →	BNA 08:10	EWR 11:29	7%	3%	0.8%	83%
UA 2461 United Flight history →	BNA 09:25	EWR 12:44	9%	4%	0.8%	73%
UA 2174 United Flight history →	BNA 13:15	EWR 16:37	18%	8%	0.8%	74%
UA 499 United Flight history →	BNA 19:25	EWR 22:48	24%	7%	0.8%	58%
UA 2848 United Flight history →	BNA 15:35	EWR 19:00	28%	10%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON