Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 516 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 516 BNA 06:40 → FLL 09:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 285 BNA 16:40 → FLL 20:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 516 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:40	FLL 09:55	5%	1%	0.9%	85%
B6 682 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 05:45	FLL 08:59	10%	3%	2.6%	100%worse than usual
WN 4847 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:15	FLL 14:35	17%	5%	0.8%	76%
WN 4030 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:45	FLL 16:05	17%	5%	0.9%	73%
B6 2482 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 07:50	FLL 11:04	17%	6%	3.0%	95%worse than usual
B6 2582 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 14:27	FLL 17:41	30%	14%	3.9%	43%
WN 285 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:40	FLL 20:00	32%	10%	1.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON