Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4430 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4430 BNA 05:00 → HOU 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 534 BNA 19:25 → HOU 21:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4430 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:00	HOU 07:00	3%	1%	1.6%	96%
WN 532 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:00	HOU 10:05	7%	2%	1.6%	81%
WN 5055 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:40	HOU 13:40	16%	3%	1.3%	50%
WN 533 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:55	HOU 15:55	24%	5%	1.3%	39%
WN 4474 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:45	HOU 00:50	25%	5%	0.7%	47%
WN 534 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:25	HOU 21:30	30%	7%	0.8%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON