Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 396 BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2490 BNA 18:42 → IAH 20:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 396 United Flight history →	BNA 06:30	IAH 08:42	9%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 1366 United Flight history →	BNA 11:10	IAH 13:23	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 5332 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 08:40	IAH 11:02	11%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 2339 United Flight history →	BNA 15:08	IAH 17:19	17%	5%	0.7%	72%
UA 2490 United Flight history →	BNA 18:42	IAH 20:54	18%	5%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON