tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 537 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 537 Southwest Flight history → BNA 10:05 IND 12:20 7% 2% 0.5% 90%
WN 539 Southwest Flight history → BNA 20:35 IND 22:55 23% 6% 0.6% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 1h 40m Denver DEN 08:40 → IND 13:00WN 1552 6h 45m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → IND 12:30WN 960 4h 45m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952 4h 23m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 3h 20m Chicago MDW 10:00 → IND 12:05WN 3877 6h 00m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 18m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 3h 06m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 6h 23m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 3h 14m Detroit DTW 16:00 → IND 17:18DL 5826 · flown by Republic 6h 12m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → EWR 10:18UA 371 1h 36m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 6h 07m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 17:41 → ORD 19:55AA 1570 52m Chicago ORD 20:47 → IND 23:06AA 4594 · flown by Republic 4h 25m 72% 62%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest 55m Chicago ORD 21:25 → IND 23:44UA 3660 · flown by Republic 4h 20m 67% 56%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:35 → EWR 19:00UA 2848 53m Newark EWR 19:53 → IND 22:15UA 3705 · flown by Republic 5h 40m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON