Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3993 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3993 BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 547 BNA 17:20 → LAS 19:15 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3993 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 07:00	LAS 08:50	5%	2%	0.5%	88%
WN 544 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:35	LAS 08:25	5%	1%	0.5%	92%
WN 2407 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:25	LAS 14:15	21%	4%	0.5%	46%
WN 548 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:20	LAS 22:15	33%	6%	0.6%	42%
F9 3777 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:41	LAS 17:40	34%	12%	0.9%	67%
WN 547 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:20	LAS 19:15	34%	7%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON