Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 891 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 891 BNA 06:28 → LAX 08:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 551 BNA 15:50 → LAX 18:10 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 891 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:28	LAX 08:40	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 3237 American Flight history →	BNA 07:30	LAX 09:56	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
WN 991 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:15	LAX 10:30	12%	2%	0.6%	64%
DL 355 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:59	LAX 17:10	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 769 Delta Flight history →	BNA 19:30	LAX 21:50	18%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 2123 American Flight history →	BNA 18:50	LAX 21:15	23%	6%	0.6%	59%
WN 551 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:50	LAX 18:10	27%	6%	0.5%	39%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → LAX 09:20WN 2427	6h 00m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	BNA 08:05 → DAL 10:00WN 486	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 11:10 → LAX 12:20WN 1327	6h 15m	94%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON