Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2735 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2735 BNA 06:25 → LGA 09:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2144 BNA 20:05 → LGA 23:25 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2735 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:25	LGA 09:40	6%	1%	0.7%	80%
AA 4411 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 06:00	LGA 09:23	7%	2%	0.9%	86%
DL 5688 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 09:25	LGA 12:57	10%	3%	0.9%	91%
AA 4364 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 10:35	LGA 14:05	13%	4%	0.9%	73%
WN 1966 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 09:45	LGA 13:05	16%	3%	0.7%	64%
WN 4731 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:35	LGA 15:55	24%	6%	0.7%	48%
AA 2302 American Flight history →	BNA 14:23	LGA 17:44	29%	10%	0.8%	66%
AA 4481 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:17	LGA 20:49	29%	9%	1.3%	48%
DL 2748 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:50	LGA 20:11	30%	11%	1.2%	44%
WN 2144 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:05	LGA 23:25	34%	11%	0.7%	39%
DL 4638 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 06:00	LGA 09:32	25%	10%	0.0%	75%
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 12:40	LGA 16:17	27%	12%	5.5%	73%
DL 5022 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	LGA 23:31	34%	16%	20.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON