tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 16:20, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1427 Southwest Flight history → BNA 14:35 LGB 16:50 17% 5% 0.5% 48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165 6h 35m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770 2h 00m Phoenix PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505 6h 50m 99% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50WN 3993 2h 45m Las Vegas LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260 7h 45m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116 6h 24m 89% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 13:25 → DEN 15:10WN 503 3h 05m Denver DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037 8h 35m 99% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 08:00 → AUS 10:10WN 4149 3h 05m Austin AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915 8h 10m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 07:55 → DEN 09:40WN 499 3h 45m Denver DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259 8h 55m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:05 → SJC 17:40WN 674 2h 10m San Jose SJC 19:50 → LGB 21:10WN 4907 8h 05m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON