tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 19 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 19 Southwest Flight history → BNA 08:05 LIT 09:15 6% 2% 0.5% 82%
WN 4687 Southwest Flight history → BNA 22:40 LIT 23:55 27% 5% 0.6% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485 2h 35m Dallas DAL 09:35 → LIT 10:45WN 4403 5h 35m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040 5h 53m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:19 → LIT 12:49DL 1347 6h 31m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027 5h 24m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:41 → LIT 11:03AA 3632 · flown by Envoy 6h 02m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → LIT 12:45AA 4146 · flown by Envoy 7h 14m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:56 → LIT 13:18AA 3636 · flown by Envoy 6h 14m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → LIT 13:31UA 5321 · flown by SkyWest 7h 01m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LIT 23:37UA 5228 · flown by SkyWest 5h 13m 69% 55%
AmericanDetails → BNA 14:23 → LGA 17:44AA 2302 56m New York LGA 18:40 → LIT 21:13AA 4644 · flown by Republic 6h 50m 66% 47%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50WN 490 1h 05m Dallas DAL 21:55 → LIT 23:10WN 1338 4h 15m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON