Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4289 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4289 BNA 08:15 → MCI 09:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 562 BNA 17:30 → MCI 19:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4289 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:15	MCI 09:55	4%	1%	0.5%	82%
WN 5063 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:30	MCI 14:10	10%	2%	0.5%	75%
WN 4625 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:00	MCI 16:40	16%	4%	0.5%	44%
WN 563 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:35	MCI 00:15	18%	5%	0.6%	46%
WN 562 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:30	MCI 19:10	20%	6%	0.5%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON