Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 564 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 564 BNA 05:10 → MCO 08:00 · 1% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 3560 BNA 17:05 → MCO 20:19 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 564 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:10	MCO 08:00	1%	1%	12.8%	98%
WN 565 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:50	MCO 09:40	5%	2%	14.9%	80%
WN 4712 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 09:15	MCO 12:10	7%	3%	15.6%	90%
WN 568 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:15	MCO 13:10	10%	3%	16.7%	74%
WN 4714 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:40	MCO 15:40	17%	6%	16.7%	61%
F9 1286 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 11:12	MCO 14:25	23%	10%	18.3%	91%worse than usual
WN 569 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:55	MCO 18:00	23%	8%	17.3%	52%
WN 572 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:30	MCO 23:35	23%	7%	17.3%	56%
WN 787 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:00	MCO 20:05	25%	9%	17.3%	40%
WN 571 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:40	MCO 21:45	28%	9%	17.3%	26%
F9 3560 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 17:05	MCO 20:19	32%	14%	15.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON