tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 579 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 579 Southwest Flight history → BNA 08:00 MEM 09:05 8% 1% 0.5% 88%
WN 580 Southwest Flight history → BNA 22:50 MEM 23:55 30% 6% 0.6% 39%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 3h 25m Chicago MDW 10:05 → MEM 11:40WN 2824 6h 35m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:00 → HOU 07:00WN 4430 2h 25m Houston HOU 09:25 → MEM 10:55WN 4013 5h 55m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 14m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 1h 00m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 5h 28m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071 4h 17m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41UA 5758 · flown by SkyWest 7h 11m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 09:10 → MEM 10:00AA 2110 4h 29m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:24 → ORD 21:21AA 3383 · flown by Envoy 1h 09m Chicago ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy 4h 54m 75% 60%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 4h 57m 60% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON