Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1342 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1342 BNA 05:38 → MIA 09:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1501 BNA 17:32 → MIA 20:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1342 American Flight history →	BNA 05:38	MIA 09:01	6%	2%	1.3%	92%
AA 487 American Flight history →	BNA 07:20	MIA 10:48	13%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 1521 American Flight history →	BNA 10:39	MIA 14:00	20%	7%	2.7%	87%
WN 581 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:30	MIA 14:50	25%	6%	2.4%	55%
AA 1452 American Flight history →	BNA 18:39	MIA 22:04	31%	10%	1.6%	45%
WN 4575 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:15	MIA 22:40	32%	10%	0.9%	41%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	BNA 17:32	MIA 20:59	33%	10%	1.7%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON