Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2221 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2221 BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 968 BNA 22:45 → MSP 00:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2221 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:00	MSP 08:10	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:03	MSP 12:14	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 2160 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:10	MSP 10:15	7%	2%	0.6%	68%
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:00	MSP 18:14	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	BNA 18:45	MSP 20:58	19%	4%	0.7%	78%
WN 968 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:45	MSP 00:55	20%	5%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON