Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 594 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 594 BNA 08:05 → MSY 09:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4475 BNA 20:15 → MSY 21:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 594 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:05	MSY 09:40	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 595 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:45	MSY 14:20	16%	3%	0.6%	58%
WN 597 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:50	MSY 00:25	23%	7%	3.8%	53%
WN 4475 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:15	MSY 21:50	29%	8%	4.3%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON