Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2412 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2412 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:00	MYR 13:25	11%	4%	1.6%	62%
WN 603 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:50	MYR 21:25	24%	9%	0.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065	3h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	6h 05m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 08:10 → MYR 11:20WN 1695	5h 15m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	5h 42m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047	4h 37m	99%	83%
United Details →	BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332	7h 19m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	BNA 12:05 → BWI 14:55WN 1345	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 17:05 → MYR 18:35WN 4367	5h 30m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:58DL 3074	6h 27m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 14:12 → MYR 15:27DL 2467	4h 39m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON