tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 295 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 295 Southwest Flight history → BNA 08:00 OKC 09:50 8% 2% 0.6% 58%
WN 608 Southwest Flight history → BNA 22:35 OKC 00:30 23% 6% 0.6% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:10 → OKC 10:50WN 3010 5h 35m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 3h 30m Chicago MDW 10:10 → OKC 12:15WN 4114 7h 10m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 7h 02m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → OKC 11:56AA 3731 · flown by Envoy 6h 55m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 11:10 → IAH 13:23UA 1366 3h 12m Houston IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa 7h 05m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485 3h 45m Dallas DAL 10:45 → OKC 11:45WN 4128 6h 35m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 5332 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 7h 35m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 21m Charlotte CLT 11:21 → OKC 13:05AA 2220 7h 34m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:31 → DFW 17:44AA 1475 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → OKC 19:39AA 3727 · flown by Envoy 4h 08m 74% 57%
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → OKC 23:59AA 2734 4h 25m 71% 47%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 17:15 → DEN 19:15WN 504 50m Denver DEN 20:05 → OKC 22:45WN 175 5h 30m 59% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON