tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 609 at 14:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 609 Southwest Flight history → BNA 14:00 OMA 15:45 14% 3% 0.5% 53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 2h 55m Denver DEN 09:55 → OMA 12:30WN 748 7h 15m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 49m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → OMA 09:28DL 2632 4h 18m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:11UA 6188 · flown by Mesa 7h 41m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125 6h 27m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 3h 30m Chicago MDW 10:10 → OMA 11:35WN 2984 6h 30m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 29m Minneapolis MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:43 → ORD 12:39AA 3439 · flown by Envoy 3h 27m Chicago ORD 16:06 → OMA 17:56AA 4724 · flown by Republic 7h 13m 100% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:30 → OMA 23:14UA 1625 4h 50m 69% 57%
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:19 → CLT 21:55AA 1497 46m Charlotte CLT 22:41 → OMA 00:19 +1AA 961 5h 00m 67% 52%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:50 → LGA 20:11DL 2748 54m New York LGA 21:05 → OMA 23:35DL 4900 · flown by Endeavor 6h 45m 68% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON