tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 855 Southwest Flight history → BNA 13:55 ONT 16:00 19% 4% 0.5% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 55m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → ONT 09:05WN 759 5h 45m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 28m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 6h 35m 95% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 3h 55m Denver DEN 10:55 → ONT 12:10WN 4080 8h 55m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → ONT 09:29AA 2238 6h 28m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:28 → PHX 09:13AA 3086 1h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → ONT 12:02AA 2244 6h 34m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:01 → ORD 17:04UA 3440 · flown by Republic 3h 14m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 9h 50m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 19:34 → SLC 22:10DL 2209 49m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 14m 73% 62%
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59AA 1534 6h 25m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON