Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 451 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 451 BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 4679 BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 451 United Flight history →	BNA 06:00	ORD 07:58	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
UA 343 United Flight history →	BNA 09:53	ORD 11:54	7%	3%	0.8%	80%
UA 2465 United Flight history →	BNA 07:40	ORD 09:41	9%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 3973 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 09:04	ORD 11:00	10%	4%	1.4%	90%
UA 1616 United Flight history →	BNA 12:49	ORD 14:50	13%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 3439 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 10:43	ORD 12:39	13%	4%	1.5%	85%
AA 4964 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 07:21	ORD 09:30	14%	5%	1.0%	71%
UA 4653 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 11:15	ORD 13:15	15%	6%	1.2%	87%
UA 3440 United flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 15:01	ORD 17:04	18%	5%	1.2%	55%
UA 1884 United Flight history →	BNA 16:59	ORD 19:00	24%	5%	0.8%	57%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 19:24	ORD 21:21	25%	6%	1.9%	48%
AA 1570 American Flight history →	BNA 17:41	ORD 19:55	27%	6%	0.7%	51%
AA 6200 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 16:01	ORD 18:09	29%	9%	1.5%	58%
UA 4679 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 18:24	ORD 20:30	31%	8%	1.5%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON