tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4688 at 12:00, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4688 Southwest Flight history → BNA 12:00 ORF 14:50 12% 3% 0.7% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 1h 00m Chicago MDW 07:40 → ORF 10:45WN 1661 4h 40m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 48m Dulles IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa 4h 47m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → ORF 11:40WN 1070 3h 55m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 5h 18m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:43 → JFK 12:19AA 4712 · flown by Republic 3h 11m New York JFK 15:30 → ORF 17:09AA 4359 · flown by Republic 7h 26m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925 5h 27m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:57 → PHL 12:06AA 5576 · flown by PSA 3h 26m Philadelphia PHL 15:32 → ORF 16:52AA 4749 · flown by Republic 6h 55m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 1h 44m Detroit DTW 14:30 → ORF 16:21DL 1621 5h 15m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:35 → EWR 19:00UA 2848 59m Newark EWR 19:59 → ORF 21:42UA 3439 · flown by Republic 5h 07m 71% 56%
JetBlueDetails → BNA 14:27 → FLL 17:41B6 2582 1h 04m Fort Lauderdale FLL 18:45 → ORF 21:04B6 1800 5h 37m 72% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON