tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1350 Alaska Flight history → BNA 16:43 PDX 19:33 18% 5% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 8h 38m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539 7h 17m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 8h 40m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 32m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 8h 09m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 55m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → PDX 10:25WN 4092 7h 05m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 2h 35m Denver DEN 09:35 → PDX 11:10WN 1667 7h 55m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 9h 18m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396 48m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 7h 26m 63% 54%
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:54 → PDX 00:55 +1AA 2620 7h 21m 70% 48%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 16:20 → PHX 18:00WN 639 55m Phoenix PHX 18:55 → PDX 21:30WN 1682 7h 10m 65% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON