Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2809 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2809 BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 634 BNA 21:20 → PHL 00:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2809 American Flight history →	BNA 06:28	PHL 09:39	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 5576 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 08:57	PHL 12:06	13%	4%	1.4%	90%
WN 623 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:15	PHL 13:20	13%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 3221 American Flight history →	BNA 11:31	PHL 14:38	18%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 3130 American Flight history →	BNA 13:03	PHL 16:15	20%	6%	0.8%	78%
AA 1506 American Flight history →	BNA 15:36	PHL 18:45	22%	7%	0.7%	68%
AA 5580 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 20:01	PHL 23:10	24%	8%	2.1%	65%
WN 626 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:45	PHL 17:50	28%	7%	0.6%	40%
WN 634 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:20	PHL 00:25	29%	6%	0.6%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON