Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 635 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 635 BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 642 BNA 19:20 → PHX 20:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 635 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:20	PHX 06:55	3%	1%	0.5%	88%
WN 3770 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:05	PHX 09:40	8%	2%	0.5%	82%
AA 3086 American Flight history →	BNA 07:28	PHX 09:13	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 2972 American Flight history →	BNA 14:20	PHX 16:04	20%	6%	0.7%	70%
WN 639 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:20	PHX 18:00	30%	6%	0.5%	59%
WN 642 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:20	PHX 20:55	35%	7%	0.6%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON