tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4525 at 13:30, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4525 Southwest Flight history → BNA 13:30 PVD 16:55 18% 3% 0.5% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 1h 00m Chicago MDW 07:40 → PVD 10:55WN 784 4h 50m 97% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:40 → DCA 08:25WN 4991 2h 25m Washington DCA 10:50 → PVD 12:15WN 3529 5h 35m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → PVD 12:05WN 4628 4h 20m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147 6h 19m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 00m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → PVD 13:53DL 1224 6h 53m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 19m Detroit DTW 10:05 → PVD 12:03DL 3961 · flown by SkyWest 4h 58m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 55m Charlotte CLT 08:55 → PVD 10:57AA 2336 4h 26m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451 2h 47m Chicago ORD 10:45 → PVD 14:25UA 4703 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:01 → ORD 18:09AA 6200 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Chicago ORD 19:14 → PVD 22:43AA 1293 5h 42m 73% 58%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:00 → DCA 09:04AA 5440 · flown by PSA 56m Washington DCA 10:00 → PVD 11:30AA 5337 · flown by PSA 4h 30m 56% 48%
JetBlueDetails → BNA 14:27 → FLL 17:41B6 2582 54m Fort Lauderdale FLL 18:35 → PVD 21:44B6 1196 6h 17m 67% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON