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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 651 at 11:15, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 651 Southwest Flight history → BNA 11:15 PWM 14:40 16% 3% 0.6% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 10:50 → PWM 12:20WN 1065 4h 35m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 28m Dulles IAD 12:45 → PWM 14:34UA 3535 · flown by Republic 5h 04m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → EWR 10:18UA 371 1h 41m Newark EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic 5h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 14m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 4h 50m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 6h 50m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809 3h 06m Philadelphia PHL 12:45 → PWM 14:16AA 2354 6h 48m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 1h 19m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 4h 55m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:00 → DCA 09:04AA 5440 · flown by PSA 1h 29m Washington DCA 10:33 → PWM 12:11AA 344 5h 11m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 17:41 → ORD 19:55AA 1570 1h 14m Chicago ORD 21:09 → PWM 00:43 +1AA 4403 · flown by Republic 6h 02m 75% 60%
DeltaDetails → BNA 18:27 → JFK 22:09DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor 5h 25m 62% 43%
JetBlueDetails → BNA 18:23 → JFK 21:50B6 1174 50m New York JFK 22:40 → PWM 00:21 +1B6 308 4h 58m 54% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON