Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4639 at 11:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4639 BNA 11:59 → RDU 14:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4820 BNA 18:00 → RDU 20:35 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4639 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 11:59	RDU 14:42	9%	3%	0.8%	89%
WN 1795 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:10	RDU 12:40	10%	3%	0.6%	74%
AA 4596 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 16:55	RDU 19:43	16%	5%	1.1%	67%
WN 653 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:20	RDU 16:55	18%	4%	0.6%	69%
WN 4431 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:35	RDU 23:15	24%	6%	0.6%	53%
WN 4820 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:00	RDU 20:35	29%	7%	0.6%	67%
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 09:35	RDU 12:20	18%	9%	1.6%	82%
DL 5153 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	RDU 22:46	28%	15%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON