Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4530 at 13:50, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4530 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:50	RIC 16:30	15%	4%	0.6%	32%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	5h 46m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 10:09 → RIC 11:47DL 3166	4h 42m	97%	88%
United Details →	BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RIC 13:57UA 3704 · flown by Republic	6h 57m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:05DL 1437	6h 47m	99%	88%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 43m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet	4h 31m	98%	87%
United Details →	BNA 08:10 → EWR 11:29UA 2690	3h 21m Newark	EWR 14:50 → RIC 16:27UA 3610 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	100%	86%
American Details →	BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809	3h 33m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont	7h 07m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	5h 35m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 19:19 → CLT 21:55AA 1497	54m Charlotte	CLT 22:49 → RIC 00:04 +1AA 1882	3h 45m	74%	54%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:40 → LGA 16:16DL 5438 · flown by Endeavor	1h 05m New York	LGA 17:21 → RIC 19:16DL 5760 · flown by Republic	5h 36m	75%	53%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:00 → JFK 13:30DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 14:20 → RIC 16:19DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor	5h 19m	69%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON