Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 657 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:25	RSW 16:30	29%	8%	12.2%	52%
WN 658 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:45	RSW 21:55	33%	11%	9.3%	36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 06:10 → STL 07:30WN 679	2h 25m St Louis	STL 09:55 → RSW 13:25WN 4940	6h 15m	100%	74%
United Details →	BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102	7h 44m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	55m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	6h 27m	94%	71%
United Details →	BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 5332 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Houston	IAH 12:19 → RSW 15:52UA 1361	6h 12m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 03m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 19:29 → RSW 23:52DL 2268	6h 52m	92%	67%
United Details →	BNA 12:49 → ORD 14:50UA 1616	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618	6h 45m	95%	67%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 01m	99%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON