Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 659 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 659 BNA 08:05 → SAN 10:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 1978 BNA 20:20 → SAN 22:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 659 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:05	SAN 10:15	15%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 4111 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:40	SAN 15:45	27%	5%	0.6%	36%
WN 1978 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:20	SAN 22:30	35%	6%	0.6%	40%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → SAN 09:10WN 2771	5h 50m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485	50m Dallas	DAL 07:50 → SAN 08:50WN 192	5h 40m	91%	78%
American Details →	BNA 08:01 → DFW 10:14AA 1515	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:06 → SAN 12:03AA 3102	6h 02m	88%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON