tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 663 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 663 Southwest Flight history → BNA 08:00 SAT 10:20 4% 2% 0.5% 88%
WN 4371 Southwest Flight history → BNA 14:25 SAT 16:45 15% 5% 0.5% 40%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485 2h 50m Dallas DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617 5h 45m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 07:55 → SAT 12:05WN 4081 6h 45m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:00 → HOU 07:00WN 4430 2h 25m Houston HOU 09:25 → SAT 10:25WN 1432 5h 25m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 2h 20m Denver DEN 09:20 → SAT 12:25WN 3149 7h 10m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 59m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676 4h 33m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → SAT 11:09DL 1121 4h 51m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 6h 51m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451 1h 12m Chicago ORD 09:10 → SAT 12:12UA 490 6h 12m 96% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50WN 490 55m Dallas DAL 21:45 → SAT 22:55WN 2231 4h 00m 66% 43%
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599 4h 24m 66% 43%
AmericanDetails → BNA 17:32 → MIA 20:59AA 1501 53m Miami MIA 21:52 → SAT 23:59AA 1468 6h 27m 64% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON