Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 670 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 670 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:05	SDF 12:00	11%	2%	0.5%	85%
WN 671 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:30	SDF 22:30	35%	8%	0.5%	32%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 07:45 → SDF 10:05WN 1267	4h 00m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	5h 41m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → SDF 12:30WN 1297	4h 45m	98%	90%
American Details →	BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	99%	88%
American Details →	BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065	1h 39m Charlotte	CLT 09:39 → SDF 11:24AA 5395 · flown by PSA	4h 53m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	4h 54m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	6h 09m	97%	85%
American Details →	BNA 10:43 → ORD 12:39AA 3439 · flown by Envoy	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 15:51 → SDF 18:27AA 4668 · flown by Republic	6h 44m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 11:31 → PHL 14:38AA 3221	47m Philadelphia	PHL 15:25 → SDF 17:36AA 5394 · flown by PSA	5h 05m	74%	56%
United Details →	BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest	55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic	4h 35m	67%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON