Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 372 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 372 BNA 07:00 → SEA 09:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 469 BNA 18:03 → SEA 21:07 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 372 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:00	SEA 09:59	6%	2%	0.8%	86%
AS 623 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 09:25	SEA 12:26	15%	3%	0.7%	85%
AS 281 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 07:02	SEA 10:04	21%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 543 Delta	BNA 17:15	SEA 20:14	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4784 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:55	SEA 18:50	31%	7%	0.6%	29%
AS 469 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 18:03	SEA 21:07	35%	6%	0.8%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	55m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 59m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 14m	96%	79%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 08:15 → SEA 10:30WN 1406	7h 20m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON