Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1293 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1293 BNA 06:31 → SFO 09:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 673 BNA 17:15 → SFO 19:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1293 United Flight history →	BNA 06:31	SFO 09:20	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 298 United Flight history →	BNA 14:54	SFO 17:42	18%	6%	0.6%	60%
UA 2142 United Flight history →	BNA 16:59	SFO 19:47	21%	6%	0.6%	61%
WN 673 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:15	SFO 19:55	32%	10%	0.5%	17%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502	1h 02m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	6h 43m	89%	69%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	48m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 25m	86%	60%
American Details →	BNA 09:58 → DFW 12:13AA 3397 · flown by Envoy	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:15 → SFO 14:58AA 2997	7h 00m	91%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON